The Next Crash
Conventional wisdom says it’s impossible to see a market crash coming. It claims the market is totally random. That there’s no such thing as a “trend”. It also says markets are 100% efficient and that outperformance doesn’t exist.

Conventional wisdom will tell you that the best you can do is throw your money into the market and “diversify”. Basically just close your eyes and pray for the best.

Market goes up?

Great!

Goes down?

Oh well.

And as far as another 08’ scenario? Well there’s no way to avoid something like that…

Guess what.

All this conventional wisdom is bullshit.

Not only can you see market crashes coming and protect yourself, but you can actually use them to make a killing.

The best traders and investors have been identifying trends and profiting from crashes since markets have existed. Conventional wisdom conveniently ignores this fact.

Take Jesse Livermore for example. The greatest trader to ever live. Profiting from crashes was as natural to him as walking down the street chewing bubblegum.

He first identified the 1907 crash. He called the top and made $3 million in a single day while the rest of the financial community was scrambling, wondering what the hell happened.

J.P. Morgan himself, the original head honcho of the giant bank we know today, was financing brokers left and right to save them from bankruptcy. During that time he had to send a special envoy to Livermore to beg him to stop shorting the market.

Livermore wasn’t a one hit wonder either. He did it again in the 1929 market crash. But this time he made over $100 million. In today’s terms, that’s over $1 billion.

And Livermore isn’t the only speculator to use market crashes to his advantage. Take 2008 for example. Hedge fund managers like John Paulson and Kyle Bass made billions during that time.

Clearly there’s a way to not only protect yourself from a crash, but to make enormous profits from it. And since you’re here reading this, I assume you already had an inkling of this idea. So the next question is how. How do you take advantage of these market events?

Do you give your money to a financial advisor to do it for you?

Hell no.

Best case scenario: your financial advisor (FA) puts you into some passive strategy that just mimics the market’s returns, while charging you unnecessary fees on top.

Worse case scenario: your FA is way overconfident in his own abilities and encourages you to make investments that end up losing all your money.

Let’s look at the best case scenario first.

When you think of a financial advisor, what do you imagine? Maybe a knowledgeable finance professional with your best interests in mind? Someone who knows more about the markets than you and can help you protect your wealth?

Ha, not so much…

Now don’t get us wrong here. There are some financial advisors out there who do a great job. We’re friends with a number of them. But these guys are generally exceptions to the rule. Good luck finding one. You’ll quickly run into the “needle in a haystack” problem.

Your standard FA is nothing more than a glorified salesmen. His goal? To collect as many assets as possible and charge as many management fees on those assets as he can.

That’s the name of the game. Fees. The more assets you have, the more fees you can charge. Performance is not a factor. The FA gets the fees regardless of whether he makes money for you.

The standard go-to play for advisors is to put your money in a few vehicles that mirror the market. The catch is that they’ll likely put you in the most expensive vehicle. That way they can rake in the highest fees possible.

If product A charges a 1% fee for expected performance of 5% a year, and product B charges a 2% fee for the same expected performance, you can bet you’ll be put in product B.

We’ve seen the insides of the business. The conflicts of interest are ridiculous. Some would even say illegal.

Imagine being a FA who has a number of different funds to choose from to sell to a client. They all have similar performance, but all different fees.

Now if you push a fund with a higher fee, that’s more money in your pocket. And on top of that, the sales rep from that fund will hook you up with courtside seats if you move his product.

Hmm….tough decision huh? You can imagine which option most FA’s choose.

Everybody wins except the client. But hey, the wheel keeps spinning and good people keep getting fleeced.

Okay, so there’s higher fees, but at least you get some expertise right? The FA may be a salesman, but his firm has a team of analysts analyzing something or another right? If a crash comes they can warn you!

Again… no. Like we said, performance doesn’t matter. It’s all tied to a benchmark anyway, which is why they can throw you in something that mirrors the index.

If the S&P drops 50%, and your account also drops 50%, then according to benchmarking, your FA did just fine!

Convenient right? It’s how the whole industry works. As long as you’re not doing worse than the benchmark, you’re doing great.

Go to your FA after a crash and ask him what the hell happened. He’ll probably point to another FA down the street who lost his client 51% and say “hey, at least you did better than that guy…

Yup, this is the best case scenario. Shitty index-based performance for higher fees. And all without protection from a crash.

Now let’s look at the worst case scenario.

Every so often you’ll run into a FA who truly believes he knows a lot about markets. You would think this would be better than an FA who accepts that he’s a salesman. But it’s not. These FA’s are the types of guys with lots of degrees, and maybe a PhD in some market related field, that truly believe they know everything. Any good trader knows how toxic this mentality can be in the markets. And boy does it turn out terribly for the client…

Take the story of our friend Trenton for example. Trenton had a printer business back in the day. He worked hard and eventually sold his company for a multi-million dollar payout.

Now Trenton is a great businessman, but not necessarily the best when it comes to financial markets. So he did the “sensible” thing. He took his money to a financial advisor.

This particular FA was what we described before, someone with a bunch of degrees that believes his own bullshit far too much. He was a smooth talker and threw a bunch of technical jargon at our buddy Trenton. Trenton was impressed and so he trusted in this advisor’s “expertise”.

One of the first investments the FA had Trenton in was a highly volatile tech stock. Now of course to make things worse, this was during the late-90’s tech mania. And unfortunately for Trenton, it was towards the tail-end of the cycle.

The first thing the FA did was use his PhD skills to evaluate the number of eyeballs and clicks earned by this particular tech company. Then he combined it with his evaluation of where the economy was going with the magic of the internet. His conclusion? This tech stock was going to the moon!

He had Trenton put in a sizable first investment. Immediately afterwards, the stock began to fall. Trenton felt uneasy, but what does he know. He’s a printer guy, not a stock market guy. That’s what the FA is here for…

The FA’s advice after seeing the falling price? Invest more! What a great opportunity! You’re getting an even better deal than before! This company is about to change the world, so buy more while you can!

Trenton had a bad feeling about it, but whatever. He’s not the expert. So he threw in more money.

Next thing he knows the stock drops even further. He calls up the FA asking what to do. His response? Invest even more! Get while the gettin's good!

So Trenton continues to average down. Each time he feels worse and worse. He can’t sleep at night. He starts getting stomach ulcers. It’s not pretty. But it’s still not as ugly as the tech stock’s price action.

Even so, the FA continues to urge Trenton to invest more. And so he did. He continued to invest until the very end when the tech company finally went bankrupt during the 2000 crash.

Damn…

Trenton lost nearly all of his personal fortune. All those hard years of moving printers blown in just a few months with this damn FA.

This probably sounds like the most generic story possible right? We agree. But unfortunately it’s true. And we hear variations of it every day from a number of retail investors we run into. Hell, the whole reason we began Macro Ops was because our very own friends and family went through similar horror stories.

A number of you reading this right now are probably facepalming. Either you’ve had a similar experience with a financial advisor, or you know how stupid that advice was, or both. It’s a shame this happens, but it does.

In the worst case scenario, when a crash hits, you may lose more than just what the market loses. You may lose it all.

So okay, financial advisors are out of the question. But what if you just cut the middle man out. If the best advisors can do is track an index, then you can do that yourself with ETF’s right? And that way you at least cut out the extra fees and horrible advice.

So how about using a passive strategy?

Sorry. That’s not going to work either.

It sounds nice though. Throw your money into a few ETFs that track the index like SPY, DIA, or QQQ. Not much work involved. And you end up getting the same returns as everyone else, but with fewer fees.

It’s been a great play these past few years. Since ‘09 the market has been on a tear. You got some of the best returns anywhere by passively investing in an index and sitting back.

And it’s not like people haven’t picked up on this ETF idea. Many are doing it.

I’m sure you’ve heard of robo-advisors like Wealthfront and Betterment. Their passive ETF strategies have caused their growth to explode these last few years. In 2015 alone, they grew over 200%. And they aren’t stopping either. According to AT Kearney’s projections, the industry will have over $2 trillion in assets under management (AUM) by 2020.
Their idea was simple. They knew FA’s weren’t doing much more than tracking the index. So they decided to do the same thing, but over the internet. They greatly reduced their overhead by getting rid of in-person advisors and let a computer do the job.

It’s real simple. Just log-on and they create a basic, passive ETF portfolio for you. And all with far fewer fees than you could have hoped for with an FA.

It’s honestly a great option when the alternative is going with a traditional FA. At least you aren’t getting fleeced with all the unnecessary hidden fees. And the robo-advisor isn’t going to tell you to throw all your money into a dying company either. It has diversification programmed in.

These robo advisors’ passive strategies have worked well these past few years. And investors expect them to continue working. That’s why AT Kearney is forecasting such extensive AUM growth. It’s also why investors have valued private robo-advisors like Wealthfront and Betterment at nearly a billion dollars each. Venture capital dollars are constantly chasing after anything that even slightly resembles a robo-advisor.

But it’s not just robo-advisors that are wild about passive investing. It’s everyone. This trend is the main reason we’re seeing such rapid growth in the ETF industry. Every time you turn around, there’s a new ETF being created to help investors go passive.

In 2015 alone, 43 new companies entered the ETF market, taking the number of ETF providers around the globe to 275. And together the industry introduced 266 new ETFs to the market that same year, trumping the 2007 peak of 258.

All these companies have been flooding the market because demand for ETFs has been relentless. In 2015, ETFs attracted net inflows of $372 billion, setting records around the world. The current industry is worth $3 trillion and there are expectations that it will double by 2020. Current growth is tremendous.

But here’s the funny part. Out of 6,100 global ETFs now available to investors, 70% of those funds have less than $100 million in assets, meaning they fall below the minimum AUM requirement to break-even on their services. They’re actually providing these vehicle at a loss!

Is this starting to sound familiar to anyone? The ridiculous growth expectations. The scramble to create new companies and products without regard to profitability. And all in the name of supposed incessant demand?

Oh yea… kinda sounds like a bubble doesn’t it?

At this point we’ve reached the stage of “peak passive”. Everyone has moved to one side of the boat. Passive investing is now regarded as some kind of magical panacea for market returns.

But what actually happens to these strategies when there’s a crash?

Well since they’re passive, these accounts will tank with the market.

Now you would think most investors that have been in the markets for a while understand this. But unfortunately, the majority seem to have severe recency bias.

The last 7 years have been great! Why would another 2008 occur? No way…

And for those not suffering from recency bias, it’s likely due to the fact that they haven’t experienced a crash before. It’s interesting because more than 60% of Wealthfront investors are under the age of 35.

These new passive disciples were too young to really feel the pain of previous crashes. They simple didn’t have enough savings for it to matter. But now it’s been a few years. They’ve built up their accounts. So when the next crash comes, we’ll see how much they truly love their robo-advisor with its passive strategy.

One thing’s for sure, a robot ain’t gonna ease their pain as they watch half their wealth disappear within a year.

But okay, let’s assume for a second that all parties are well aware of what happens to a passive strategy in a market crash. And let’s also assume that they’ve resigned themselves to the fact that they’ll just have to live with the downturn.

They’re okay with that. Why? Because the number one thing any advisor will tell you is to hold through. Don’t sell. The index will come back and you’ll make all your money back. Because indices always come back… right?

Well… maybe, but will you be around to see it?

Check out the long-term view of the Japanese stock market below. The Nikkei peaked in December of 1989 and then fell into a bear market which it’s still stuck in today — nearly 27 years later…
   
Imagine you decided to passively invest your money in the Japanese markets in 1989. If you had the same mentality most passive investors have now, that markets always recover and everything always turns out hunky-dory, you’d be very depressed right now.

From 1989 to 2009, you would have lost almost 80% of your original investment. That’s 20 straight years of losing money. Can you imagine that? Can you imagine being stuck in a bear market so brutal that your savings are constantly sucked away year after year for multiple decades? What the hell would you do?

And the Japanese are still struggling with this bear market. It’s not even over…

So much for “holding through” huh? If you hit a generational bear market like the one in Japan, you’re screwed.

But hey, that’s just Japan right? Their economy is a mess. It’s nothing like the US. We’re a powerhouse. A bear market like that could never happen here… Not so fast.

Check out the long-term chart of the Dow Jones below. What do you see? 

Yup, multiple periods of completely stagnant markets. Sideways movement for years at a time. Sure it’s not the same as a massive 30 year downtrend like Japan, but it’s still terrible for your savings.

Say you went passive in 1966. The markets didn’t break new highs again until 1982. That’s 16 years of straight sideways movement.

And if you thought dividends would save you, they wouldn’t. Inflation would kill you too. Your annualized return from January 1966 to January 1982, including dividend reinvestment, after adjusting for inflation, would be -1.42%.

Are you willing to accept negative returns from your passive strategy for that many years?

Didn’t think so…

The problem is investors are too short sighted. They look at the most recent period and then extrapolate it out to forever. It’s the same thing that happens at the top of every market cycle.

In this case they saw passive investing working wonderfully in a smooth uptrending market. So why would things ever change?

Go find an old trader who’s survived the markets for more than a few decades and ask him if passive is the best long-term strategy. He’ll laugh you out of the room.

Those with experience know how wild markets can get. They know it’s not as easy as blindly investing with the index. Active management is essential.

The pendulum has recently swung to an extreme. Peak passive. But you can bet it will soon swing hard the other way. Those investors still clinging to their passive strategies will get slaughtered. But those who have learned to actively manage their savings will not only survive, but thrive in the coming environment.

And this isn’t even considering the massive liquidity issues brewing because of all the money being thrown into passive ETFs. ETF providers are not equipped to handle the large volume of redemptions that will come with a market downturn. Their ETF fund structures will likely collapse on themselves, causing even more trouble for investors.

If you’ve followed us for any amount of time, you’ve heard about the coming global deleveraging. This deleveraging is going to be painful to say the least. And it won’t be like anything we’ve seen before. The world has never been more interconnected than it is now.

If you’re going to protect your savings, you need to know how to navigate treacherous markets.

But by now you’re probably thinking to hell with these markets. There’s too much risk!

Can’t I just throw my money into a savings account where it will be safe?

Unfortunately, no.

Nowadays the average savings account returns a measly 0.06% a year.

You’re basically getting nothing. You can’t even beat inflation with pathetic returns like that.

And who can you blame? The central banks. It’s the fault of those ivory tower economists sitting at the Federal Reserve manipulating the markets behind the scenes. The Fed’s meddling in our monetary system has created a toxic environment for responsible savers.

Here’s the thing, they don’t want you to save. Their goal is to push you out as far as possible on the risk curve. They want your money out of the bank and into the markets.

And they’re not giving you much of a choice. Look at their actions. Supposedly the Fed is “data driven”. They’re supposed to hike interest rates once unemployment and inflation hit certain levels. But after their initial hike last December, they’ve failed to follow through on any more.

At this point, being “data driven” is basically like trying to hit a moving target. And the catch is that the Fed is moving the target themselves. As unemployment continues to fall, the Fed just shifts the required level lower.

And even more humorous is when they decide to interpret data in different ways to fit their preconceived conclusions. You see this with inflation all the time. “Oh if you remove this, or remove that, then inflation is actually too low! And if you add this, or isolate that factor, it looks really terrible!

It’s ridiculous. They interpret data in whatever way helps them push their agenda.

The problem is that central banks around the world are severely struggling to jumpstart their economies. Nothing is working. That’s why they’re conducting all this funny business with the numbers. And it’s also why they’re resorting to unconventional monetary policy.

There are now negative interest rates overseas. Banks are actually being penalized for holding money.

We’re in uncharted financial territory. Nothing in history compares to this current environment.

And if you think it couldn’t get that bad in the US, you’re wrong.

This year’s election cycle is a testament to how far out things can get. No one would have ever guessed that America would be on the precipice of electing Donald Trump as the President of the United States. But it’s happening.

Nothing is out of the question anymore. Policymakers will go to the end of the earth to save face and put a short term band aid on a long term problem.

The goal is to boost spending by any means necessary and keep financial asset prices artificially high. Have you heard the talk of banning large denominated bills? We’re talking no more $100 bills. In Europe the ECB has already announced they’re getting rid of €500 bills.

Why? Because the government doesn’t want people hoarding cash. The populace is realizing how risky the markets are and what negative rates could mean. They’re also concerned about the threat of deflation. One possible solution is to cash out their savings and stuff it under their mattress. But this flies directly in the face of the government’s goal to boost spending, which is why they’re trying to prevent people from being able to get cash in the first place.

Their plan is to keep all your money in the system. And through perverse incentives, such as negative rates, they want to make you spend your money. They want to control what you do.

It’s absolutely wrong, but it’s something we may have to deal with in the near future. Your money will likely be forced into the market as you desperately attempt to outperform manufactured inflation, only to leave your nest egg wide open to a future crash.

So if you can’t trust a financial advisor or rely on a passive investment strategy, and you can’t just hold your money in the bank, what do you do?

The safest place for your money is in your own hands.

It’s up to you protect your money in these markets. No one can do it for you because no one cares as much about your savings as you do.

But you’re not alone.

The reason we started Macro Ops was to help our friends and family. They were in the same predicament you’re in now. They knew they had to take control of their finances, but they weren’t sure how. That’s why they came to us. Our team (myself, Tyler, and Anish) have multiple years of experience in the hedge fund industry. We’ve worked with the best and learned a lot along the way.

From our time in the professional space we knew there was one investment strategy that stood above all others. It’s a strategy that will not only ensure survival through the next crash, but also heavy profits. This strategy is Global Macro Investing.

Global Macro isn’t value investing. And it’s not pure technical trading either. It doesn’t restrict you to just equities, nor does it bind you only to a single country’s markets.

Instead, global macro is a go anywhere, trade anything strategy that combines the best of the best from multiple methods. Its fusion of technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis makes it both versatile and robust.

Global macro been used in various forms by some of the greatest traders and investors in history. Jesse Livermore, Ray Dalio, George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller — they’ve all used this strategy to outperform the broader markets year after year. These are the guys that salivate at the thought of a coming crash because they know how much opportunity there is to profit.

Our question became how to teach global macro to our friends and family. We wanted to empower our loved ones with financial knowledge, not just throw them picks without a process behind it. Education begets confidence and confidence begets successful execution.

Our need to teach inspired us to create the Macro Ops Hub. And while the Hub may have started as a teaching tool, it has now evolved into much more.

Here’s what you’ll get when you become a full-fledged Operator with access to the Hub:

Full Insight Into Our Macro Ops Portfolios 

We give you 100% insight into every trade we take. We run two different strategies and you’ll get access to both. You’ll be alerted to every trade including our entry parameters, exit/risk points, and position sizes.

You can follow along trade for trade or just take the ones you find most attractive. It’s up to you. Either way, you’re getting a front row seat to the direct result of our entire global macro trading and investing process.

Each of our portfolios follow a different style:


Strategic Ops

Our Strategic Ops portfolio focuses on finding and riding the biggest macro trends around the world (this portfolio is our bread and butter). This is big bet, high-conviction trading. We rely on our macro and fundamental analysis to identify outsized reward-to-risk opportunities that we can deploy a hefty portion of our capital to.

With this strategy you can expect infrequent trading, with large position sizes and wider stops. There will be many periods where we sit completely inactive. Our goal with this strategy is to wait patiently for the fat pitches to come our way. And when they do come, we make sure we hit em’ outta the park.

This is NOT like your typical asset allocation strategy. We can go from 100% cash to highly concentrated in a heartbeat, looking to exploit one or two macro themes. The best way to beat a benchmark is to trade remarkably different from it. Strat Ops does just that.  
 
Volatility Ops
 

Volatility Ops is designed to extract the volatility risk premium embedded in VIX products. The core strategy will consist of selling overpriced VIX futures every 60 days to profit as futures prices converge to spot prices. The same effects that decay popular vol ETNs like VXX and UVXY make this strategy profitable. Our macro outlook is used in conjunction with this methodology to determine the aggressiveness of our position sizing.  

Vol Ops will have frequent wins, sometimes in excess of 80%, but will also have larger drawdowns during crisis periods. It thrives in bullish conditions and is the perfect complement and hedge to Strategic Ops.

Our own funds are allocated between these two portfolios. We diversify via strategy rather than by asset class as most do. It is our belief that diversifying strategy is the most effective way to generate a smooth, up-trending equity curve.

These portfolios are also just a start. As we move forward, we’ll continue to test new strategies. That’s how this game works. Hypothesize, test, and refine.

As an Operator, you will get access to it all. We will be 100% transparent with everything that goes into building new strategies along with their results. We are REAL traders managing REAL money. If something doesn’t work, we have no problem tossing it out.

These portfolios show you the end result of our extensive trading and investing process. But with access to the Hub, you also get all the tools, resources, and general process steps we use to analyze the positions we take.

You don’t learn or advance without being able to see the “guts” of how something works. That’s why we want to be as transparent as possible with how we select trades. We want ourselves and our community to constantly improve and evolve. That’s a big part of why we provide you with our tools. In financial markets, if you’re not learning, you’re falling behind. 


The Hub tools include: 

Macro Dashboards

As you may know, our team at Macro Ops are big fans of billionaire Ray Dalio. Our macroeconomic understanding is based off the work he’s done at Bridgewater. We’ve utilized his ideas and taken them to their logical conclusion to amplify our trading capabilities.

Last year, I (Alex) turned down a job offer from Bridgewater to work on their “Economic Machine”. Reason being, I wanted to create Macro Ops and build my own Macro Machine.

Our current machine is in its very first stages of development. Right now, it consists of a series of custom, interactive dashboards we use to collect data and evaluate various economic environments. In the “go anywhere” strategy we employ, this information becomes vital to ensure we’re trading on the right side of the dominant trend.

Over the coming year we’ll be adding to these dashboards and bringing in developers to build out software to run our “Global Algorithm”. This will be the foundation of how we view the world systematically and identify asymmetric profit opportunities.

As macro legend Jesse Livermore once said:

“This is about all I have learned — to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it.”

The Macro Dashboards include:

Liquidity Dashboard

Liquidity is the most important macro factor that drives markets. Think about the bull run we’ve had since the 09’ bottom. And the ridiculously violent “buy the dip” rallies we’re now experiencing. Much of this is a direct result of loose monetary policy. The Fed pumped liquidity into the system with QE and low interest rates and as a result we now have prices that seem to never fall.

Our Liquidity Dashboard evaluates changes in the Fed funds rate and the resulting impact on spreads along asset class yield curves. Depending on the reading, we’re able to get an idea of what type of environment we’re in and whether it’s bearish or bullish for various markets. This indicator alone would have kept you out of every bear market for the last 100 years.

We track liquidity for the following:

-US
-EU
-Asia
-EM
 
Economic Dashboard

The Economic Dashboard includes a number of indicators that give us a picture of how the US economy is doing. The dashboard includes:

-TED Spread
-Real Retail Sales Growth
-NFP/Civilian Labor Force
-Net Profit Margins
-Market Cap To GDP
-10-2 Yield Curve
-Heavy Truck Sales
-Investor Stock Allocation
-PMI
-Real Wage Growth

The Ted spread, for example, is the difference in price between the 3-month US Treasury and 3-month Eurodollar futures contracts. This spread serves as an indicator of perceived credit risk. This is because treasuries are considered risk-free while eurodollars (international USD denominated debt) reflect perceived credit risk of corporate borrowers. When the spread increases it means the risk of default is increasing (ie, liquidity is tightening) and vice versa for when it drops.

You can view an interactive version of the Ted spread here.

Recession Dashboard

The Recession Dashboard currently contains our Unemployment Indicator — the best tool to use to predict recessions. It has nailed every recession over the entire period for which we have data. There are two parts to this indicator; one is a 12-month moving average crossover and the other is a 36-month moving average crossover. When the change in the unemployment rate stalls and crosses the 12-month moving average it suggests a high probability of a recession over the coming 12 months. But the 12-month crossover has given a number of false signals. The 36-month moving average crossover has a hit rate of 100% and when it’s crossed it suggests a recession is imminent or already in progress. 
These three dashboards are the first step in building our complete Macro Machine. You can expect more of these dashboards with more in-depth capabilities as we continue to grow and evolve. Eventually, we plan to use our Machine to create a robust, profitable, and systematic global asset allocation strategy. But this won’t be the same allocation strategy you get from a standard mutual fund or financial advisor. This strategy will be based on true macro drivers, not some short-term correlations that blow up in a financial crisis.

Dalio’s Bridgewater recently surpassed George Soros’ Quantum Fund as the most profitable hedge fund ever. Bridgewater’s investment strategies are all allocation based. They’ve identified the true drivers of asset prices and built such a powerful system that they believe it will be highly profitable for the next 100 years with no problems. And all without any human intervention. That’s a true machine right there.

Can we do the same? Absolutely. In fact, we’ll do even better.

Position Sizer

One of the least understood concepts in trading and investing is position sizing. Many professional investment shops still don’t have a process to size properly. Honestly, it’s a complicated problem, but our Position Sizer will help you solve your most basic needs when it comes to making sure you’re investing the right amount in any asset.

The Position Sizer outputs quick calculations based off account size, risk per trade, and vehicle type (stock, future, or forex). This tool takes a risk capital approach to position sizing as opposed to a notional capital approach. The amount you want to risk on a certain trade will determine the actual notional amount you buy or sell.

The calculations tend to get a bit messy when you step into the futures and spot forex markets which is why this tool is even more essential to avoid mistakes when entering a position. You have the option to download this model to your computer or use it on our website.
 
Communications Center

This is our favorite part of the Macro Ops Hub and also the most valuable.

The Communications Center is where the magic happens. It’s a private, internal forum where our community of Operators congregate to ask each other the hard questions and test each other’s views.

At Macro Ops we believe in breaking everything down to its first principles and building from there. This is the best way to find “truth”. But it’s not possible to do this in a vacuum. Iron sharpens iron. You need an intelligent community to constantly test you. You need capable partners to challenge and improve upon what you think you know.

We built the Comm Center to make this happen. Each day our elite community of Operators discuss and dissect each others’ theses to create profitable trade ideas. Every Operator approaches the conversation with a commitment to developing their understanding of the world. There are no egos, just traders and investors looking to score the biggest gains possible in global markets.

The discussions so far have been fantastic. Ideas have been tested and profits have been made. Our team at Macro Ops is thoroughly impressed by the level of thought that has gone into every exchange. It’s better than we could have imagined. Not only are we succeeding in educating our members each day through the Comm Center, but we’re also learning a number of lessons from the community in return. We are confident in promising that the Comm Center is invaluable. It has already lead to much larger profits than any one of us could have achieved alone.

The Comm Center is also the only place where you will receive direct, unrestricted access to the Macro Ops team. Our goal is to use our combined years of professional experience in the hedge fund world to help you make the most out of the markets. It’s in this forum where we will answer any questions you may have, whether they be about specific trade ideas, particular investment theories, or even who will win the Superbowl this year. You have our ear. Your questions and your P&L are our top priority.
 
The Market Brief

We can imagine what you’re probably thinking at this point — “Boy… this is a lot.”

It’s tough to disagree with you there. We want to provide the utmost value for your hard-earned dollar. We’ll always strive to one-up ourselves to keep giving you the best tools and analysis available anywhere.

But we also understand that even though you would love to keep up with every conversation and update that floats through the Hub, you may miss a few due to your own busy schedule.

So that’s why we’ve put together the Market Brief to go along with your Hub access. You can think of the Market Brief as a weekly newsletter. Each week we’ll send a PDF report straight to your inbox that covers a mix of the following:

In-Depth Review Of The Past Week’s Market

Events We isolate important key events from the previous week, analyze their effect on markets, and explain why they matter to your bottom line. 
The Macro Ops Market Outlook

After reviewing the past week’s developments, we reevaluate our own views on the markets. Are we still bearish? Has new information caused us to turn bullish? Which global markets are now most attractive? Each week we ensure that we’re on the right side of the trend. 

Education


Continuous improvement is the name of the game for any high-performing individual in a competitive endeavour. Being a trader or investor in the global markets is no different. That’s why we make sure to include a section in each Market Brief dedicated to teaching you something new to make you a better trader and investor.

Portfolio Review

You’ll get a snapshot of both our portfolios — Strategic and Volatility Ops — to make sure you’re aware of our trades each week. We also provide charts and reviews of our best trades.

If you only had time to read one report a week to stay up-to-date with all the latest happenings in the markets, the Market Brief would be your go-to resource. We make sure to thoroughly prepare you for the upcoming week and arm you with the information you need.

You can see an example of the Market Brief by clicking here.

Our plan is to eventually split the Market Brief into its own service, but as an Operator with access to the Hub, you will retain access to any and all future issues. 
The Macro Intelligence Report

Access to the Macro Ops Hub also comes with a free subscription to the Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) — a newsletter we sell for over $400 dollars a year.

You can think of the MIR as a once-a-month, beefed up version of the Market Brief. It covers the largest investment themes around the world and provides actionable trade ideas to help you profit.

Each issue of the MIR issue includes the following: 
Market Overview

The MIR starts with a broad overview of what’s happening in the global markets and where we see things headed over the next month or so. With so much noise, it’s imperative to define the one or two drivers markets are actually paying attention to.

Around The World

The Around The World section takes a 62 mile Sputnik view of global finance. We make sure to cover every market worth noting. Whether it be the big boys in the Eurozone or smaller markets in South America, we analyze every global event that could affect your capital.

Deep Dive

The Deep Dive is where we combine what we learned in the Market Overview and Around The World sections to plunge into the most interesting and profitable investment themes. It’s here where we’ll get into the details behind particular global macro theses with specifics on how you can play them.

Quant Overview


Our Quant Overview takes all the complicated narratives we track and distills them down into ones and zeroes — data. Whether it’s the historical probability of the S&P continuing higher over the next three months, or a review of what happened the last time we had a technical divergence between the Euro and the Dollar, we’ll explain it here. You can also expect monthly volatility analysis as we work to find the highest probability VIX trades.

Systemic Risks

The MIR’s Systemic Risks will keep you updated on all the potential global market disruptions we see coming down the pipeline. Now just because something may happen, doesn’t mean it will happen. But we don’t take any chances. We stay fully aware of these risks and prepare to protect our portfolios accordingly.

Asset Allocation Weightings

 

For our longer term investors and financial advisors we’ve created a simple asset allocation table that quickly provides our outlook on various markets and asset classes. We evaluate everything from gold to biotechs with either underweight, neutral, or overweight. This section will give you a succinct summary of the conclusions of our macro analysis.

The MIR is packed full of vital information that will take your trading and investing to the next level.

You can check out a sample of the Macro Intelligence Report here
Vault

Another key feature of the Hub is the Vault.

The Vault is a collection of educational materials available for our community of Operators to advance their trading knowledge and skillset. It includes a mixture of proprietary Hub materials and other educational articles we’ve released over the last year.

There are a few different sections that make up the Vault:

Theory: The goal here is to build a set of mental models that’ll serve as the foundation to all trading strategies we develop and deploy.

Process: This section focuses on the application of the theoretical concepts we’ve learned.

Mechanics: The nuts and bolts on how to execute particular aspects of a trading strategy.

Trading Wisdom: A collection of advice from those far smarter than any of us, from Bruce Kovner to Seneca The Younger.

Books: If you want to be a successful investor, then you need to be a student of the markets. This section will review the best books you should be studying regularly.

The Vault will continue to grow as we amass more educational material over time. It will eventually be split out into its own product, but you will retain lifetime access with your Hub membership.

For an example from the “Theory” section of the Vault you can check out this PDF describing Pareto’s Law, 90/10, and the Distribution of Returns.

One of our most popular Vault series takes a deep dive into our trade identification process. We cover everything including analyzing macro fundamentals, identifying themes, utilizing price action, and even drilling into micro. We call it MOTIF, or the Macro Ops Trade Identification Formula. All three parts of the MOTIF series are available exclusively in the Vault.

This series and the rest of the Vault are highly acclaimed among the Operator community. The Vault has been a vital part in forwarding our members’ investment education and is absolutely necessary if you’re looking to up your game.
Courses

In addition to the Vault, and in accordance with our mission to train our Operators into top macro traders, we also give you free access to both our courses, a value of over $400.
 
 

Our Intro To Global Macro Course acts as a warm-up to global macro investing. It’s great for beginners just entering the world of macro while also providing a solid review to those who have been at it for a while.   

The course begins by covering the history of global macro with an overview of the billionaires who used this strategy to score enormous profits year after year. It also explains why global macro is so successful and why it will continue to work in perpetuity.

We then dive straight into the nitty gritty of the analysis involved in this strategy. You’ll learn all about the Marcus Trifecta, an analytical framework designed to find highly profitable trends in any market. The trifecta includes fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis — a trio that no other investing or trading strategy successfully combines and utilizes. And to tie it all together, we give you real-life examples of the framework in action with real trades from the past few years.

All this goes down in a 2-hour video mashup of slides and charting software, overlaid with engaging narration from Operator Tyler.
 
 

The Price Action Masterclass is our more advanced course offering. It consists of 6 separate sections with 26 lectures in total — an equivalent of over 6.5 hours of video content. This is a full education we’re providing here.

This isn’t your average technical analysis course either…

We’re not just going to show you how to draw lines on a chart or read a few random indicators.

We’re going to help you achieve much more.

In the Price Action Masterclass, we thoroughly analyze the theory and philosophy behind price action. Our goal is to help you build the solid foundation and understanding you need to reach a mastery level in technical analysis.

Now this isn’t to say we won’t provide you with any specific tactics. This course is not all theory. It’s absolutely actionable. We’re going to show you exactly how we conduct our technical analysis at Macro Ops. We’re talking step-by-step instruction.

But before we do that we’ll equip you with the knowledge you need to take full advantage of those tactics and techniques. At the end of this course, you’ll even be able to create your own technical methodology.

The course structure is as follows:  

Philosophy —> Theory —> Quant —> Tactics

The philosophy, theory, and quant sections are essential for true mastery of the eventual tactics you’ll use.

Below you’ll find a sample lecture from the philosophy section of the course called:

Sturgeon’s Law: 90% Of Everything Is Crap!

As you can see, both these courses are extremely valuable to a trader’s education, which is why we’re including them in the Hub for free. You can also expect new courses down the line that you’ll get first as a full-fledged Operator.

Constant Evolution

The Hub is a constantly evolving project. As we grow, we’ll continue to build it out. More tools. More resources. And all with the goal of more profits and better risk adjusted returns. As part of your Hub membership, you will have access to it all.

Simply put, we have our work cut out for us. And on top of all this, we also manage a private macro-focused fund that we aim to grow through superior risk-adjusted performance over the next decade. So it’s exciting times for us here.

The Macro Ops Hub will completely change the way you trade and invest.

Think about the next time there’s a market crash. Will you be one of the average investors out there that loses a majority of their savings? Or will you take the Operator route and make a killing?

Imagine yourself a year after joining the Hub. With the Operator community you’ve hit a number of big trends and are now sitting pretty, with returns far greater than those of the indices. In fact, the general market has gone down since the time you joined, and while others have been losing, you’ve been gaining.

And now with the knowledge you’ve gained through the Hub, you realize that we’re at the precipice of another major market crash. At this point you have a large enough profit cushion and also the confidence to really go for the jugular. You’re plan is to plunge this crash, just like the macro legends.

The time comes and you make your move. Other investors are either running around like chickens with their heads’ cut off or paralyzed with fear and self doubt. But you on the other hand are as cool as the other side of the pillow as you see your P&L shoot higher.

By the end of it, there’s blood in the streets. But you just made the biggest gains of your career. You successfully navigated and profited from a crash that took out 99% of other investors. How would that feel?

The alternative would have been wallowing with everyone else unprepared for a crash. And when it came, you would have lost your shirt, just like them.

Now when the time finally comes to buy the bottom and ride the next cycle up, you’ll be waiting with ample dry powder. Not paralyzed with feelings of despondency and depression. Major market bottoms create many opportunities to catch stocks that double, triple and even quadruple in a short time. But you can’t take advantage of those opportunities if you’re stuck in underwater passive investment strategies.

If you’re still reading to this point, you understand that it’s time to raise your game and play on a higher level. It’s time to join the Macro Ops Hub. The tools and community the Hub provides will completely transform your returns. You’ll have three options for the Hub subscription: 

Monthly
$187.95/mth
Quarterly
$516.86/qtr
  • Good Value - 1 Month Free
Yearly
$1879.50/yr
  • Best Value - 2 Months Free
 
 
 
This will be your lifetime rate. It will not be bumped up as we raise prices.

If for whatever reason you don’t find the membership helpful, or feel it’s not a good fit, then we’ll give you your money back through our 60-day money-back guarantee.

No questions asked and no hard feelings. This works out for both of us. You get your money and we only get members who really want to be a part of what we’re doing. We want to make it completely risk-free for you to join our team.

Click Here To Access The Macro Ops Hub!
It’s true that you may have other options to achieve your investment goals outside of the Hub.

You could go at it on your own. Buy some books. Maybe find some courses online. And try to string together a plethora of disparate theories into a successful strategy.

Hey it might work, but boy… that is about the roughest road you could choose. We’ve been through that process — going through all the garbage out there, trying to make sense of all the conflicting theories. It’s a giant pain, and not very effective.

And while you’re doing that, multiple trends will pass you by. Good luck trying to profit from them when you’re still learning. A likely scenario is that you lose money by mismanaging them. Or even more probable, you just miss them completely and never even get a chance to profit.

So not only is going solo ineffective, but it’s extremely expensive considering all the market opportunities you miss. This stuff isn’t easy to learn. Especially on your own. It takes years. That’s years of trends you fail to exploit. Its years of compounding you don’t get to benefit from. This route just doesn’t make sense when you have something like the Hub available. The stakes are high and there is not much room for error.

The Hub takes years of our team’s experience and packages it for you to learn from. We’ve been through the struggle and made it to the other side. There’s no need to for you to go through the same thing.

We’re not saying it’s easy learning this stuff, but it’s a lot easier when a community dedicated to the craft is helping you along.

There’s also no one else out there offering the resources we are. Have you ever tried buying a trading course? Most of the time you end up paying thousands of dollars for some shitty video that does no more than show you how to draw lines on a chart. We know because we’ve bought those courses. It’s a waste.

We’re offering you a whole different experience. Not only will we teach you what you need to know, but while you’re learning you’ll be getting every single one of our trade picks. You’ll get to hit every trend.

You’ll actually make money while you learn. Where can you find a better deal than that? Where else can you learn and build your wealth at the same time?

One thing all experienced traders know is how isolating the markets can be. It becomes very mentally challenging. You will absolutely experience this when battling the markets by yourself.

This is the reason traders always search for others to join forces with. This doesn’t necessarily mean trading together and executing the same style, but it’s rather more of support community. These are guys you can relate to. Guys that understand exactly what you’re feeling when holding a position that’s going against you.

Where will you get that if you decide to try and master the markets on your own?

As we explained before, the Comm Center in the Hub is one of the most useful features we offer. You have an entire community of elite traders there to help you on your journey.

And you know what they say… you are a product of the people you surround yourself with. So if you want to be a successful trader, you need to surround yourself with other successful traders. That’s exactly what the Hub provides.

All the greatest traders also had mentors. This is yet another thing that’s hard to find. So many traders and investors aren’t successful in the first place. So to find one that is both successful and willing to mentor you is no easy task.

Luckily the Hub gives you direct access to the Macro Ops team. We’ll guide you and provide the mentorship you need to succeed. You’ll receive all the benefits from our years of experience duking it out in the markets.

At this point you need to take a step back and look at what all the Macro Ops Hub offers. Joining will give you 3 portfolios to follow long with, a host of tools to use in your analysis, weekly and monthly reports briefing you on everything that’s happening in the markets, a continual financial education, and an elite team of Operators that have your back at all times.

Again, you’re getting all this for the following low price:
 
Monthly
$187.95/mth
Quarterly
$516.86/qtr
  • Good Value - 1 Month Free
Yearly
$1879.50/yr
  • Best Value - 2 Months Free
 
 
 
And remember, it all comes with a 60-day money-back guarantee, which means there’s zero risk to join

Now is the time to make the decision that will transform your trading and investing forever. We’re excited about what we’re doing here. And we’re even more excited for you to be apart of it. This is the beginning of a tremendously profitable journey for us all, filled with comradery and a hell of a lot of fun. Click the button below to get access to the Hub. We’ll see you inside…
 
Click Here To Access The Macro Ops Hub!
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